A Developmental Stability Theory of Predictive Hierarchies: Why Some Perceptual Architectures Remain Stable Under Perturbation
Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Hallucinations, delusions, disorganised thought and passivity phenomena are defining symptoms of schizophrenia, yet computational accounts have struggled to explain why they emerge in some individuals, typically during late adolescence rather than at birth. We propose a Developmental Stability Theory (DST) in which psychosis reflects a loss of stability in perceptual architectures shaped by sensory experience during critical developmental periods. We model the perceptual hierarchy as a high-dimensional dynamical system performing precision-weighted inference and derive a stability criterion, gσ√D < 1, in which effective dimensionality (D), aggregate coupling (σ), and neuromodulatory gain on prediction errors (g) jointly determine susceptibility to instability. We define D operationally through the participation ratio of population activity and decompose it into measurable temporal, social, spatial, semantic and intrinsic components. The framework links this stability criterion to circular-inference divergence, dopaminergic and psychedelic modulation of precision, and dendritic mechanisms underlying coding-level coupling. It further connects molecular NMDA receptor dysfunction to a systems-level stability transition, accounting for psychotomimetic effects of sub-anaesthetic NMDA antagonism and the proposed protective effect of congenital cortical blindness against schizophrenia. DST therefore provides a multiscale computational account linking developmental experience, neural dynamics, cellular mechanisms and psychosis, while generating four falsifiable predictions.</p>
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